A prediction model for functional recovery in stroke.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Stroke-related physical disability can diminish quality of daily living, place care burden on families, and increase need for long-term institutionalization. We developed a prognostic index for use in research and with potential for adaptation to clinical practice that establishes the likelihood of an individual achieving a specific stage of functional recovery after stroke rehabilitation. METHODS We constructed the index using logistic regression based on 3760 patient records from 96 rehabilitation facilities in 31 states. The stage, as measured by the Functional Independence Measure, includes achievement of the following: independence in eating, grooming, and dressing the upper body; continence in bowel and bladder; and transfer between a bed and chair with supervision only. RESULTS This stage was achieved by 26.1% of patients functioning below it at rehabilitation admission. Disability onset of less than 60 days was associated with more than a 3-fold increase in the likelihood of achieving the stage (adjusted odds ratio, 3.5; 95% confidence interval, 2.0 to 6.0). Each eight-point increase in an eight-item activities of daily living score, measured at admission to rehabilitation, increased the odds 2.5-fold (95% confidence interval, 2.3 to 2.8). For those living alone or employed before the stroke, the odds of achieving the stage increased by factors of 1.3 and 2.2, respectively. The index showed minimal shrinkage on cross validation. The achievement of this profile of function is important because 95.3% of stroke patients who achieved or exceeded it were discharged home, as opposed to only 66.8% of those who did not achieve it. CONCLUSIONS The index can be used to establish prognoses for individual stroke patients at admission to rehabilitation with regard to achieving this stage. Achievement of the stage is associated with a high likelihood of discharge to home.